More and more signs that the next few months Womens Bobby Okereke Jersey , or even the next few weeks, Asia will face a wave of new wave of capital inflows, and may push up asset prices or consumer prices, forcing Asian central banks to tighten monetary policy to speed up the rhythm. Increase in the global context of economic uncertainty, this will aggravate the Asian countries, liquidity and exchange rate management more difficult.
Worse, once a future time, the expected "hot money" sudden withdrawal would endanger the region's emerging financial market stability Womens Parris Campbell Jersey , and could seriously affect macro-economic - a scenario for many Asian economies, is not new.
Third quarter of 2010, a total of 11.5 billion U.S. dollars of foreign capital flows to India, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, China Taiwan, Thailand Womens Ben Banogu Jersey , and Vietnam's stock market, the second quarter of 2010 reached $ 2,000,000,000 net inflow of more than 5 times. This has prompted more than three quarters of this year, the stock market upward by 8% to 23%. Meanwhile, the early date, foreign investment in Asian economies over the investment of the bond market of 86 billion U.S. dollars Womens Rock Ya-Sin Jersey , up to $ 94,000,000 last year 90 times.
Up to now, the Asian stock and bond prices from record highs in late 2007 are still quite some distance. The current asset price pressure is more evident in some of the real estate market, especially in high-end and front-line city real estate. The impact of foreign capital inflow is a factor - especially Hong Kong, Singapore and other international cities.
To deal with this situation, with most Asian central banks start raising interest rates and more prudent macro-control measures, such as adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio Womens Malik Hooker Jersey , the loan balance ratio, debt income ratio, and other financial and industrial policy measures. In our view, this is just the Asian central banks will soon face a new round of monetary policy management challenges start.
Expect the next one to two years, the United States, Europe, Japan G3 economies, interest rates will stay at the lowest point Womens Darius Leonard Jersey , and the United States and Japan is likely to take aggressive policy of quantitative easing, global liquidity is likely to remain relatively long period of time relaxed state. Asia's relatively strong economic performance, which is like a magnet in general, attracting global excess liquidity, especially when investor risk appetite after recovery.
In the last round of the 2007 upsurge in capital inflows, net private capital inflows in Asia reached 303 billion U.S. dollars, about half of the 145 billion U.S. dollars for foreign direct investment, which is by most economies Womens Andrew Luck Jersey , the stability of the monetary authorities welcomed the form of capital inflows . The challenge is to bring more portfolio inflows and bank credit, from 2007 to 2008, this part of the reduced inflow of 264 billion U.S. dollars, resulting in the Asian region commercial banks, stock and bond funds are tight. Therefore, specific channels of capital inflow than the overall level of capital inflows is more critical.
A significant reduction in the change in capital inflows, the most should pay close attention to changes in cash flow of bank credit. Second half of 2008, international banks from Asia Shouhui 300 billion U.S. dollars loan Womens Peyton Manning Jersey , but in the first quarter of 2010, they entered to Asia 1400 billion dollars in loans. In comparison, the volatility of the stock market float portfolio year only 300 billion to 500 billion U.S. dollars, bond market volatility in capital flows 100 billion to 400 billion U.S. dollars. This also explains why so far, Asian central banks to manage capital flows to strengthen measures to focus on cash flow of bank credit.
In the future, Asian central banks have to further tighten the management of capital flows, but to avoid a similar, Thailand and Malaysia in 2006 for use in 1998 was too harsh measures. A more effective management of "excessive" capital inflows way is to guide the flow into more productive uses Khari Willis Jersey , especially for infrastructure investment and overseas investment in resources and technology purchases - this is the most Asian economies, to ensure sustained economic growth is needed. This requires not only short-term measures such as the management of liquidity, capital inflows strictly inhibited the use of leverage, but also long-term policy plans to promote the further development of Asian financial markets and, through taxation, exchange rates and industrial policies to attract overseas investment. Mobile Game development
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